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Nate arrives as a Tropical Storm late Sunday

Published: 10.7.17 12:01pm

Good Morning Folks! The heavy rain event remains alive as Hurricane Nate nears the Gulf Coast, with a timeline that has it arriving as a Tropical Storm late Sunday night across the TN Valley, according to the 10am advisory update from the NHC. We still don’t think this will cause widespread flooding but isolated flooding along creeks and streams are now possible, especially for areas closer to the N GA and SC state line. Isolated showers are already developing along the escarpment as of Saturday morning and coverage will expand through the day, peaking in both coverage and intensity Sunday afternoon, eventually winding down Monday afternoon. Showers will still linger through the week, with pop up showers likely Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly even Thursday but it being this far out we are not certain. It does seem certain that anywhere from 4 – 7” of rain will fall across the region and we wouldn’t be surprised to see locally higher amounts along the escarpment, but for the most part this will be a fairly even distributed event and a soaker at that. Wind output from the models show some decent winds (15 – 30mph), however nothing that would lead to downed trees but they may be strong enough to strip some of the leaves that are peaking in color, so fingers crossed we are able to hold onto some of the canopy to allow for a decent color season related to the tourism economy. Temps all the while will be above normal as we deal with a tropical air mass, so don’t expect cooler weather but it won’t be hot either, just muggy and warm for early October. 

Cloudy skies will keep temps to the upper 60’s – upper 70’s depending upon elevation and once isolated showers begin, it will be difficult for temps to rise much further but as of this morning it seems most of the action resides along the escarpment. Coverage will expand this afternoon and by the evening hours, scattered showers will develop, with widespread coverage occurring by the early morning hours Sunday. Temps tonight will dip into the upper 50’s – low 60’s depending upon elevation. 

Sunday through Monday will be our wettest days of the week as heavy rain slides across the Southeast, with the focus of the rain along the escarpment as the abundant moisture interacts with the sudden rise in terrain. Most of the region will have picked up a quarter – half inch of rain by Sunday morning but another 4 – 6” is likely Sunday late morning into Monday midday, followed by another inch or two Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Needless to say, it will be soggy and your outdoor plans are likely to be cancelled, with temps Sunday and Monday only rising to the mid 60’s – mid 70’s depending upon elevation. 

Showers wane a bit Tuesday and Wednesday but stick around, even though Nate will be off to our northeast as the models show another disturbance swinging through the region on the heels of the departing storm. Temps will climb back to the mid 60’s – upper 70’s and they may cool down by the end of the week if high pressure moves into the area, but that is not set in stone at this time. 

Overall, a deluge of rain late tonight through Monday, then lingering showers Tuesday and Wednesday and possibly cooler weather late next week. ENJOY! 


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