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Heavy Rain Tomorrow; Much Cooler Next Week

Published: 11.22.14 6:37am

Good Morning Folks! Temps once again are colder across the lower elevations when compared to the higher elevations, with Cullowhee sitting at 21°F while Cataloochee Ski Area sits at 34°F. The minor cloud cover we expected last night never materialized and its absence led to clear conditions ideal for radiational cooling. Either way temps will rise back to the mid 40’s – upper 50’s Saturday (a slight increase from previous forecast) this afternoon with mostly sunny skies overhead. As we near the late afternoon/early evening hours we will find some clouds developing across the region, more so toward the SC or GA state line as southeasterly flow increases across the region. Moving into the overnight hours we will find increasing clouds before midnight with isolated light showers developing across the extreme southern escarpment (area in which the foothills meet the mountains) by the pre dawn hours; temps overnight will settle into the upper 30’s – low 40’s. 

New model updates have led to an increase in overall rain totals across the region and considering the overall flow and moisture will be out of the SE, running over the abrupt escarpment found near Highlands, Cahiers and Lake Toxaway, we are leaning toward totals around 2.5” near the SC state line with an inch or so near the TN line. These rainfall totals are for the entire event, starting tonight and running through the late morning hours Monday. Temps will be held to the mid 40’s – mid 50’s due to mostly cloudy skies, scattered showers throughout the day and continued SE flow across the region. The bulk of the rain looks to arrive later in the day Sunday ( 2 – 6pm) and as we move toward the overnight hours we will find a slow and steady decline in coverage as dry air begins to work its way into the area.  A quarter – half inch of rain will fall overnight into Monday and temps will be held to the upper 30’s – mid 40’s depending upon elevation, ensuring all precip falling will be rain and not snow. 

Monday features morning showers as a frontal system swings through the region with post frontal drying taking place throughout the remainder of the day. Timing is still up in the air at this time, however we are confident that the front will swing through before 11am with sunshine possibly breaking out in mostly sunny fashion sometime after 3pm. Temps will be the warmest we have seen in roughly 10 days as they soar to the low 50’s – mid 60’s depending upon elevation, making for a comfortable yet muggy start to the work week. Some lingering moisture will hang around in NW flow and some flurries are possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning for the TN line as temps dip into the low – upper 30’s depending upon elevation. 

Tuesday through Thanksgiving Day is looking dry and sunny, yet also cooler as temps struggle to rise past the low 40’s – mid 50’s Tuesday, mid 30’s – upper 40’s Wednesday and by Thanksgiving Day they level out in the low 30’s – mid 40’s (a change from previous forecast).This translates into little to no travel issues for the busiest travel day of the year, however there does seem to be a small chance for some light snow or flurries Thursday morning for the TN line. With this in mind we might be able to call it a White Turkey Day for the likes of Cataloochee Ski Area and the Smokies. 

Overall, pleasant today, heavy rain tomorrow with showers hanging around through Monday morning with cooler weather arriving Tuesday, only getting colder as the week moves along with c hilly yet dry and sunny Thanksgiving Day. ENJOY! 


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